Central banks are finally winning the inflation battle. After a tumultuous year when soaring prices dominated the economic narrative, 2022 closed with welcome signs that inflation appears to have peaked in the UK, US, and Europe. Interest rates may not crest as high as once forecast, even if central bank heads have been keen to stress that there is “more work to do,” according to Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell (Lazard Asset Management, 2023).
The UK is an attractive market for those seeking income, especially now that the FTSE 100 index forecasts a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2023. However, with just 10 of the index’s names expected to pay more than half (55%) of the £85.8bn in predicted pay-outs this year, investors need to be comfortable with their ability to meet these forecasts, according to Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell (Trustnet, 2023).
In the inaugural Brabners Northern Investment Index report, Manchester is ranked as the number one city for investment in 2023, ahead of London. Cardiff was ranked third, while Liverpool and Leeds ranked joint sixth overall (Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership, 2023).
From the data, it’s evident that overall, confidence remains positive throughout the recruitment industry. However, the data does indicate that confidence levels have retracted, with a 14% change in the number of agency leaders reporting a ‘very optimistic’ position heading into 2023 versus 2022.
% of agency owners expecting to grow in 2023 by region
*Ireland and Northern Ireland were not included due to low respondent rates
The latest data shows the most robust increase in vacancies for four months, signalling an improvement in the overall demand for staff for the twenty-fifth month in a row. This rate of expansion was the sharpest recorded since last October.
The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21.3%, 0.2% lower than the previous three-month period and 1.1% higher than before the pandemic.
The number of people in employment with second jobs fell in the early stages of the pandemic but has been steadily increasing since then, but has lost during the latest three-month period to 1.23 million (3.8% of people in employment).
In the latest three-month period, the total weekly hours worked increased by 7.3 million hours to 1.04 billion hours. This is still 9.5 million hours below pre-pandemic levels.
(Signature Recruitment, 2023)